Who’s Afraid of the Unders in Online Betting Goals?


Who’s Afraid of the Unders in Online Betting Goals?

A real outcast, nobody likes it, nobody wants it, nobody bets. In the last edition of the Premier League, we had 54% of the matches with over 2.5 goals and 46% with under 2.5 goals. In the Spanish league, in La Liga, 47% of games ended with over 2.5 goals and 53% games with under 2.5 goals. In the Italian Serie A, overs 2.5 were recorded in 52% of games and under 2.5 goals in 48% of games. In France, 48% of games passed the 2.5 goal line and 52% of games ended with under 2.5.

The unders in Goals are the terror of the online gambler

Who’s Afraid of the Unders in Online Betting Goals?

The Bundesliga is one of the major tournaments that offers the most unbalanced statistics in favor of over with 62% of games ending with over 2.5 goals and 38% with under 2.5 goals.

What do I mean by all this summary of goal statistics from the main football competitions on the planet? That at least the distribution between over and under is fair in these tournaments. With very few exceptions, the over / under distributions are around 50% for each side in the games of these national championships.

What makes it all the stranger is that, when observing the behavior of bettors in relation to these markets in these championships, the statistical distribution is very different. We don’t have an exact statistic but clearly bettors prioritize overs bets over unders.

The difference in volume of overs bets that we see compared to unders bets is abysmal. Which shows that bettors have a greater affection or ability to look for games with goals, than games without goals.

My reflection here today is to question where this preference comes from.

If this is not statistically proven since the distribution of the two phenomena in reality is similar, what would be the reasons that make bettors only have eyes for overs and ignore practically half of the games of the main championships in the world that also beat under?

The nature of football

It seems like a redundant and obvious argument, but it shouldn’t be ignored. The nature of football sport is not to end games 0-0 and goalless.

The goal is precisely the great goal of football and for that reason it ends up concentrating the analytical importance both in journalism, in technical commissions, and in sports betting. It is the technical and emotional peak.

I don’t mean that robust defensive systems don’t matter. Far from it, they matter and a lot.

Football origins

Many of the great coaches and champions of the last decades stood out for extremely robust and efficient defensive systems capable of leading their teams to very important achievements.

That said, there is no denying that those who watch football want to see goals, preferably from their team, but even if it is from the opponent a goal is capable of arousing admiration even from the opponent’s cheerleaders.

The goal is what defines football, it is what characterizes it.

Seems like obvious information doesn’t it? Yes, it is obvious. But it gains a certain importance when we look at sport. Our view will always be guided by what football is, and not by what it is not.

I want to see goals!

We are not born gamblers.

As much as this wave of professional pseudo bettor has dominated the sports betting scene, the truth is that most bettors have amateur methods and methodologies that do not follow much analytical rigor.

These betting methods are heavily influenced by the football fan of we were before we became bettors. Or rather, before we think about sports betting analytically.

This previous experience of a football fan, or any other experience, brings very strong addictions to the construction of the analysis as bettors. One of these most conditioning vices is our vision as a sports enthusiast and consequently the defining moments of sport: the goal!

We guide our life as a gambler for what we were before we were a gambler.

Difficulty assimilating this into the method!

Thinking about sport following its logic is much easier and more feasible than thinking about sport in a logic that is inverse to its nature. The training of our eyes as I said in the question of the construction of the betting method tends to appropriate what is more common, what is more noticeable and not a global view of sport.

Faced with so much information necessary for the development of the analytical method in sports betting, it is natural that sometimes shortcuts are the option here, prioritizing what we know and it is natural, than investigating something we do not know.

But sometimes it is in this search that the difference between profit and loss lies. Discovering new things can make us discover profitable markets.

My proposition here is to try to get rid of these preconceived views and shortcuts that lead us to think only of overs when placing our bets.

We must overcome the paths that lead us to want to look only at the overs and think more about exploring a gap that statistically has almost the same distribution in the incidence of events, which is its antagonist.


Unders and Over are equally distributed in reality, but do not have the same distribution in bets made by bettors
Underneath fears – inability to read unders
Against the Nature of Sport – What Characterizes Football
Vices brought in from the pre-betting era
Difficulty assimilating this in the construction of the method

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